Gold market bull/bear indicator description
This model is for determining when we are in a gold bull or bear market. We use the ETF GLD as our investment proxy for gold.
This model has generated an average return of 10.13% since Jan 2005 with a maximum loss of -11.26%. Buy and hold of GLD would have return 9.88% on average with a maximum loss of 25.5%. While the gain is not much greater there are two things to consider. 1) The max loss is much less 2) You can go short gold with UGL when the market is bearish. For these returns we DID NOT go short. Going short during bear periods will significantly increase the model return.